Bitcoin May Be More Vulnerable to Negative News Near $100K, Data Suggests

BTC's order book shows that bulls have surprisingly scaled back their firepower, leaving the sell side in a more dominant position.

Updated Nov 25, 2024, 5:24 a.m. Published Nov 25, 2024, 5:21 a.m.

Yes, you read the title correctly, and it does appears contradictory. As bitcoin (BTC) nears the $100,000 milestone – a clear sign of strength – the reality is that its actually quite vulnerable to potential negative news.

That's according to the "order book skew ratio," which shows that buyers have surprisingly pulled back their firepower as prices near six digits. The ratio measures the number of people wanting to sell, or the ask side, relative to those on the buy or the bid side.

The three-day moving average of the 1% skew, which measures the ask-bid imbalance within 1% of the mid-price, is now elevated, approaching levels seen only three times since 2022, according to data tracked by cryptocurrency prime broker FalconX.

Its a sign that the bullish momentum that brought prices to near $100,000 from $68,000 since the U.S. election early this month is not being replenished by new buying interest, leaving sellers in a more dominant position. As such, a slightest of negative news could lead to a notable price correction.

"As we near $100K, the skew approaches levels seen only three times since 2022. While this doesn't threaten the medium-term rally, it suggests that the struggle to break above the $100K level could be intense," FalconX said in the newsletter.

Spot order book skew for BTC, ETH and SOL

Bitcoin's uptrend stalled slightly over the weekend, since it peaked at $99,500 on Friday. Over the past three days, the cryptocurrency's dominance rate—its share of the total crypto market capitalization—has dropped sharply from 59% from 61.5%. The decline indicates a rotation of funds out of bitcoin and into alternative cryptocurrencies, supporting the case for price correction.

In any case, a potential correction or eventual breakout above $100,000 could be violent one as the overall market depth or liquidity has declined amid the price rally despite an increase in trading volumes, according to FalconX.

Liquidity refers to the market's ability to absorb large trading orders at stable prices. The recent drop in liquidity means few large orders can have an outsized impact on the going market, potentially engineering rapid price swings.

Omkar Godbole

Omkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team based in Mumbai, holds a masters degree in Finance and a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) member. Omkar previously worked at FXStreet, writing research on currency markets and as fundamental analyst at currency and commodities desk at Mumbai-based brokerage houses. Omkar holds small amounts of bitcoin, ether, BitTorrent, tron and dot.