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You already know it’s Election Day, and we’ve detailed the events leading up to today and what the results could spur in crypto land.
Bitcoin’s price surged above $70,000 Tuesday morning, before dropping below that threshold. BTC stood at roughly $70,170 just after 2 pm ET — up 3.5% from 24 hours prior.
Bitfinex analysts said in an email that BTC, historically, has responded positively to periods of political change, especially when fiscal and monetary policies are uncertain.
“The demand for safe-haven assets amidst rising US debt and deficits could drive bitcoin’s appeal as election outcomes unfold,” they wrote.
BitOoda analysts noted in a Tuesday report that implied volatility remains elevated. That is likely to persist throughout the week due to the uncertainty around the election and the Fed’s Thursday meeting, they explained.
“The options market is signaling potential price movements of around 8% following the election, compared to the typical 2% daily fluctuation,” the BitOoda analysts added.
CoinFund managing partner Seth Ginns told Blockworks he would be watching the $75,000 level. “If we break decisively above it, we’d expect a quick and large follow-through,” he noted.
Following bitcoin’s rise above $73,000 last week (and subsequent decline), Ledn CIO John Glover predicted another test of the $74,000 level before the election results come in. A Republican win could bring a “quick jump” to around $82,000, he added, followed by a period of “sideways-to-lower trading” in the $68,000 to $72,000 range.
“A break and close below $63,000…could open up the potential for a correction down to $55,000 to 62,000, but that is not my preferred count,” Glover said.
Beyond price, Ginns’ colleague, CoinFund president Chris Perkins, said crypto voters (estimated to be 18% of the electorate) have already shaped party platforms and will influence a number of election outcomes.
“As a result, we expect the next Congress to be a ‘Crypto Congress,’” he said. “This will result in a more favorable regulatory and policy climate for the asset class which will be favorable for greater adoption.”
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