Coinbase and Binance listings may be bullish — but usually not for long

Major exchange listings are milestones for cryptocurrencies: More exposure means more potential liquidity — which should convert to higher prices.

And many times that’s the case. Compiling tokens listed by Binance and Coinbase so far this year shows that out of the 42 non-stablecoin tokens to hit either platform:

• About 80% rose more than 10% at some point since their announcements. 
• Nearly half surged by more than 50%.
• Almost 30% more than doubled.

Granted, not all of the tokens newly supported by Binance and Coinbase this year were already trading elsewhere. 

Around 35% — 15 tokens — were either listed or announced to be listed on the same day as their initial launches, including layerzero (ZRO), zksync (ZK), starknet (STRK) and blocklords (LRDS). Whatever effect listings had on those particular tokens is harder to gauge. 

In any case, tracking each freshly-listed token from their initial support until today shows that it’s quite tough for debutants to hold onto any bumps associated with Coinbase and Binance listings.

As of Monday morning ET, only 12 out of the 42 (~29%) have gained value since they reached either exchange — but three of those are memecoins NEIRO, TURBO and BABYDOGE, which Binance listed today, triggering pumps of between 15% and 60%.

Two outliers were removed: AERO and BOME rallied 4,500% and 1,060%, respectively, and would dwarf the others. They’ve since come down to 1,330% and 250%.

The chart above shows how this year’s Binance and Coinbase listings have trended. 

Green dots indicate the peak returns for each token following their support by either exchange — how much each crypto rallied at some point after the announcement — while the purple dot shows its return to date.

Notice how many purple dots are in the red area representing negative returns since their listings were first announced. Over half — 22 out of 42 — have lost more than 45% of their value. 

Timing may have a lot to do with poor performance, especially if the listings came at volatile times for bitcoin’s price.

And of course, there are successes, as shown on the chart below, which plots this year’s listees as if they all debuted at the same time. Real-world asset-focused Ondo Finance has seen its token explode by up to 560% following its Coinbase listing in January, and it’s now up 180% after a correction. 

Again not shown: AERO

Meanwhile, the governance token for Solana perpetual futures market Drift Protocol is ahead 130% after peaking at 156%. Coinbase added DRIFT to its listing roadmap on May 14 — two days before the protocol opened claims for the token — and listed it for trade later that week.

VELO, the native token for AMM Velodrome, also popped by over 500% before retracing to have gained 240% since its listing that month. 

Its equivalent on Base, AERO, can’t even be shown on either chart due to how hard it pumped, having gone thousands of percent. 

Still, the results suggest major listings are a double-edged sword, especially at times when it’s not so clear whether bitcoin and the rest of crypto is really in a bull market.

Binance and Coinbase could be good for a short-term price bump, but sticking the landing is rare.

A modified version of this article first appeared in the daily Empire newsletter. Subscribe here so you don’t miss tomorrow’s edition.

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the On the Margin newsletter.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.