Court rules prediction market Kalshi’s US election bets are legal

The United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) had its emergency motion for a stay and immediate interim relief in its case against prediction market Kalshi thrown out.

After Kalshi’s successful lawsuit against the CFTC, in preparation for its appeal, the commission filed the motion seeking a delay in Kalshi’s ability to resume offering prediction markets in elections.

According to the opinion that accompanies the rejection of the motion, the CFTC “has failed at this time to demonstrate that it or the public will be irreparably injured” absent the stay or immediate relief.

However, the opinion does also note that “the question on the merits is close and difficult.”

In a separate aside, the opinion also raises the question of whether or not Polymarket has complied with its obligation to block access to US persons.

Read more: Prediction markets like Polymarket triple despite US ‘ban’

Kalshi founder Tarek Mansour took to X to claim, “US presidential election markets are legal. Officially. Finally.”

The CFTC’s appeal can, and almost certainly will, go forward and it has a history of being successful against prediction markets.

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