Crypto prediction markets favor Trump in tight race with Harris

This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe.

With a day to go before the US presidential election, prediction markets give an edge to Trump over Harris. 

On the crypto side, Polymarket gives Trump roughly 58/42, and leads in open interest. Adding to the crypto landscape, Drift Protocol’s BET platform, built on the Solana blockchain, has emerged as a notable contender. BET touts a daily trading volume of $20 million and gives Trump a 61% chance as of 11 am ET today.

Polymarket all-time highs in open interest. Source: Blockworks Research

Betfair Exchange, a UK-based betting platform, reports total bets amounting to 136 million pounds (about $176 million).

In the US, Kalshi, a recently legalized event futures exchange, has seen over $12 million in user bets since its launch. PredictIt, which has the candidates neck and neck, maintains a significant user base, though specific open interest figures are not publicly disclosed.

Robinhood and Interactive Brokers joined Kalshi as betting options available to US citizens after the latter two won a ruling against the CFTC to allow election outcome trading. Interactive Brokers has reported over a million contracts traded since launching its market on Oct. 3. Robinhood’s open interest numbers aren’t readily available.

Start your day with top crypto insights from David Canellis and Katherine Ross. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter.

Explore the growing intersection between crypto, macroeconomics, policy and finance with Ben Strack, Casey Wagner and Felix Jauvin. Subscribe to the Forward Guidance newsletter.

Get alpha directly in your inbox with the 0xResearch newsletter — market highlights, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, and more.

The Lightspeed newsletter is all things Solana, in your inbox, every day. Subscribe to daily Solana news from Jack Kubinec and Jeff Albus.