Fed Rate Cut Odds Hit 99.8%, Crypto Boom or Doom Ahead?

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting on Thursday, November 7, has spurred major market anticipation. Today, odds for a 25 basis point Fed rate cut are sitting at a strong 99.8%. This decision is likely to influence various financial markets, including the crypto space, where investors are carefully weighing potential impacts.

Impact of Fed Rate Cut on Crypto

Currently, the odds for a Fed rate pause stands at a mere 0.2%, which indicates that the market is pricing in a rate cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A Fed rate cut often leads to a weakened dollar, historically seen as favorable for cryptocurrencies. It’s because investors look for alternative stores of value amid decreased yields in traditional assets.

In addition, lowered Fed interest rates signal reduced borrowing costs, which boost the adoption of riskier assets like Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Moreover, since the U.S. Fed has already cut its interest rates by a whopping 50 bps in September, the second rate cut will further boost market optimism.

Furthermore, the market is anticipating another Fed rate cut in December, hence, the upcoming cut could fuel further optimism around the third reduction. This could, in turn, benefit the crypto market. Also, if pro-crypto Donald Trump, wins the election, this bullish news could also propel the market higher.

The Other Side

However, some analysts believe a Republican win in the 2024 presidential election could alter this trajectory. According to DZ Bank analyst Sonja Marten, the potential victory of Donald Trump may signal a shift in the Fed’s approach, diminishing expectations for future rate cuts. “All that will significantly reduce the Fed’s interest-rate cut potential,” Marten noted.

She pointed to Trump’s proposed economic measures as key factors that could curb the central bank’s rate-cutting agenda. Trump’s policy initiatives, including tariffs, migration reforms, and proposed tax cuts, are anticipated to boost inflation and fuel short-term economic growth.

TRUMP WIN COULD REDUCE FED’S RATE-CUT POTENTIAL, SUPPORT DOLLAR

The U.S. dollar could gain from a win by Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s win via a likely reduced potential for interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, DZ Bank’s Sonja Marten says in a note.…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) November 4, 2024

These measures could compel the Fed to adopt a more restrained monetary approach, reducing the likelihood of further rate cuts and potentially reinforcing the dollar. Marten suggests that “a clear and dynamic positive reaction would be expected on the dollar’s side,” should Trump’s plans take shape.

In the crypto sector, a stronger dollar could present challenges. A resilient dollar often draws investors toward conventional assets, which could dampen demand for Bitcoin and other digital currencies.

Conversely, should the Fed proceed with rate cuts, crypto markets might benefit from increased appeal as hedges against inflation and currency devaluation. The Fed’s decision this week will likely provide further clarity, shaping expectations for both traditional and crypto markets.

Also Read: Bitcoin Price Shift: U.S. Elections link to BTC