ARTICLE AD BOX
Price fixations are dangerous. In a collapsing currency – everyone is a millionaire eventually. Assuming McTrumper takes office in January – he will be blamed for the largest inflation event in modern US history.
And YES – it will take Bitcoin prices above $1,000,000 USD. But that isn’t a good thing. At least not for most people (who don’t own any cryptos yet).
McTrumper isn’t responsible for the incoming inflation apocalypse. If you want to blame a single person – which isn’t a realistic way to view the world BTW – blame poor Alan Greenspan. Most of this mess started in the post-Volcker FED era.
But Greenspan isn’t really to blame – anymore than Janet Yellen is. No, no, fiat currency is at fault. There are no more “hard” currencies – so anything will do these days.
The Roaring 20’s?
The decade is off to a rough start. Not for cryptos – the crypto complex is an amazing shape – but outside a handful of assets – the 2020’s are looking pretty nasty.
Inflation – has been an issue. Social strain – is everywhere. Wars – are growing.
If you can sufficiently insulate yourself from the storm – and stack tokens – the 20’s have been ok. No worries about buying power. Just the stress of all the deals you missed. The kind of problems everyone wants to have.
But we are changing gears in 2025. The 2nd McTrumper administration is going to be something else. Ostensibly, the Trump team is pro-crypto. At least that is the platform a conman who is now the US president-elect ran on.
Eric Trump, McTrumpers’ son, had this to say:
“I’ve been in crypto for a long time and so is my father, and I think he realizes that every country in the world is embracing it. People are running—look at where we are right now in Abu Dhabi. They’re putting billions of dollars into crypto, into digital technologies. If we don’t do it as America, we’re going to be left behind. He wants to make America the crypto capital of the world. He’s been very, very clear with that, and I applaud that.”
The view under the surface is more nuanced – much like McTrumper’s views towards Iran (this connects to crypto prices – we promise).
Not So Fast…
We don’t understand how Caroline Crenshaw got so close to another appointment at the SEC. Other Trump appointments are supportive of crypto policy, but an anti-crypto SEC commissioner could render all the other appointments useless.
Reappointment of SEC Commissioner Crenshaw Postponed Amid Backlash
Interesting to say the least.
After so many years of “Biden” and Gensler – it’s easy to be overly optimistic about the future of crypto regulation in the USA. Be realistic. The US is still the center of the Western financial system, and it has the big four to protect (USD, EUR, GBP, JPY).
There is a good reason why cryptos – which were DESIGNED to be transactional – are being smashed into an asset class. ETH ETF inflows are booming. Another decentralized currency down the drain. Now ETH is an asset. XRP and SOL will be next.
No one wants to part with an appreciating asset…
We All Love Money
As mentioned – blaming someone like Greenspan or Yellen is more realistic than blaming a president or other politician. Presidents don’t set rates or make sure the system stays on the rails. But inflation starts with money creation. That is where this next chapter of collapse begins.
In October and November of 2024 – the US budget deficit (for two months) was over $600 billion USD. That is around the annual USD GDP of nations like Sweden or Argentina. A lot of money.
Unlike the bailouts in 2008 – the money the US is now spending into then global economy will drive inflation until the system collapses. We are talking about a deficit – not the total spend for the first two months of fiscal 2025 – and the USA isn’t the only major nation running MASSIVE deficits.
With Trump threatening to punish China with tariffs – China sees the solutions as government stimulus and currency devaluation. Both drive inflation, and the loss of buying power in numerous nations (trade partners who are stupid enough to do business in Yuan).
You Have Noticed The Wars Growing
Wars destroy value.
Unless you make the weapons of war – war is terrible for business. Especially if you are in an unlucky country that is being blown apart. More importantly for the crypto sphere – wars cost a lot of money and don’t produce medium-term returns.
Somewhere a rumor got started that McTrumper isn’t into war. Sorry – it isn’t true. Trump is a bellicose SOB who loves to f@ck with Iran. Remember Qasem Soleimani? Iran does. And they blame Trump for the hit that took Soleimani to the land of the martyrs.
According to no less a mouthpiece than the Wall Street Journal:
“President-elect Donald Trump is weighing options for stopping Iran from being able to build a nuclear weapon, including the possibility of preventive airstrikes, a move that would break with the longstanding policy of containing Tehran with diplomacy and sanctions.”
War with Iran at-scale would be amazing for crypto prices. The freshly-created money would fly like hair in a poodle fight. Radiation levels also may tick up – as the recent situation in Syria demonstrated the existential threat Tehran faces.
Make no mistake – McTrumper would go to war with Iran. He would also support Israel in an aggressive war with its regional enemies (Assad isn’t looking so strong these days – poor guy – we hope Putin loans him a warm jacket).
When Did Noah Build The Ark?
Bitcoin heading to seven figures isn’t going to be a skyshot straight up. We could be at a medium-term top right now. BTC bear markets can wipe 70%+ from the top print – which could mean a fall to $35,000-ish in 2025. We think that is likely.
Fun fact – during Yellen’s time as Treasury Secretary the US added over $14 trillion in new debt. In the next 400 days – the US government debt is on track to hit $40 trillion USD. More big numbers.
If you are sitting on big 2024 crypto gains – give yourself a holiday gift – take some profits. The global economy needs consumer spending. 2025 will give you a chance to get the tokens back at lower prices – assuming you are alive to make the purchase.