Optimism (OP) Price Analysis: Testing Critical Support at $0.66 After Token Unlock Impact

Ted Hisokawa Sep 28, 2025 07:44

OP trades at $0.66 (-1.69% daily) near crucial support levels as markets digest the impact of 116M token unlock that triggered an 11.82% decline earlier this week.

Quick Take

• OP currently trading at $0.66 (-1.69% in 24h) • Optimism's RSI at 39.87 signals potential oversold conditions approaching • Recent 116M token unlock on September 21 created significant selling pressure

What's Driving Optimism Price Today?

The OP price continues to feel pressure from the significant token unlock event that occurred on September 21, 2025. The release of 116 million OP tokens - representing a 6.89% increase in circulating supply - triggered an immediate 11.82% price decline by September 24 as anticipated selling pressure materialized.

While the initial shock has subsided, the market is still processing this supply increase. The OP price managed to find some stability around the $0.79 level earlier this week, with Open Interest maintaining at $150 million, indicating that traders remained engaged despite the volatility. However, today's trading shows continued weakness as OP breaks below that stabilization zone.

The token unlock represents one of the largest single supply increases for Optimism in recent months, and its impact on the OP price demonstrates how sensitive cryptocurrency markets remain to supply dynamics, particularly during periods of broader market uncertainty.

OP Technical Analysis: Bearish Signals Emerge

Optimism technical analysis reveals a concerning picture across multiple timeframes. The OP RSI currently sits at 39.87, approaching oversold territory but not yet signaling an immediate bounce. This neutral-to-bearish reading suggests sellers maintain control without extreme panic conditions.

The MACD indicator shows clear bearish momentum for OP, with the MACD line at -0.0210 and the histogram at -0.0152. This bearish divergence indicates that downward pressure remains strong and any near-term recovery attempts may face resistance.

Optimism's moving averages paint a mixed but predominantly bearish picture. The current OP price of $0.66 trades below most key moving averages, including the SMA 7 ($0.67), SMA 20 ($0.75), and EMA 26 ($0.73). Only the SMA 200 at $0.71 remains within striking distance, though current momentum suggests even this level may be challenged.

The Bollinger Bands analysis shows OP trading near the lower band at $0.63, with a %B position of 0.1240, indicating the token is approaching oversold conditions. This positioning often precedes either a bounce or a significant breakdown, making the next few trading sessions critical.

Optimism Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, critical Optimism support levels have come into focus. The immediate OP support sits at $0.63, which aligns closely with the Bollinger Bands lower boundary. This level represents the day's low and has held through multiple tests.

Should this support fail, the next major Optimism support levels extend down to the strong support zone at $0.63, though this appears to be the same level, suggesting limited downside cushion before reaching the 52-week low region near $0.49.

On the upside, OP resistance faces multiple hurdles. The immediate resistance at $0.86 represents a significant obstacle, while the pivot point at $0.67 - just above current levels - may provide the first test for any recovery attempt. The stronger OP resistance at $0.88 remains well above current trading ranges and would require substantial buying pressure to reach.

The 24-hour trading range of $0.68 to $0.66 shows how compressed current price action has become, with the daily ATR of $0.04 indicating relatively low volatility despite the recent dramatic moves.

Should You Buy OP Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

For conservative traders, the current OP price setup suggests waiting for clearer signals. While the OP RSI approaching oversold conditions might seem attractive, the bearish MACD and position below key moving averages indicate the path of least resistance remains downward.

Aggressive traders might consider the current levels for a potential bounce play, using the $0.63 support as a tight stop-loss level. However, the risk-reward ratio appears unfavorable given the proximity to support and the distance to meaningful resistance levels.

The token unlock impact continues to weigh on sentiment, and until the market fully absorbs this additional supply, the OP price may struggle to establish a sustained recovery. Traders should monitor the $150 million Open Interest level, as any significant decline could signal reduced institutional engagement.

Position sizing becomes crucial at these levels. The OP/USDT pair shows enough volatility to create opportunities, but the overall weak bullish trend classification suggests any positions should be carefully managed with predetermined exit strategies.

Conclusion

The OP price at $0.66 sits at a critical juncture following the significant token unlock impact. While Optimism technical analysis shows oversold conditions developing, bearish momentum indicators suggest caution is warranted. The immediate focus should be on whether OP can hold the $0.63 support level, as a break below could trigger a test of deeper support zones. Traders should watch for volume confirmation on any bounce attempts and remain aware that the token unlock effects may continue influencing price action in the coming sessions.

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