Polymarket volume hits $2 billion with Trump leading election bets

Prediction marketplaces Polymarket and Kalshi see election-driven boom as markets increasingly back Trump.

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

The decentralized prediction platform Polymarket has surpassed $2 billion in total volume for the upcoming 2024 US presidential election.

As of now, Republican candidate Donald Trump holds a commanding 61.3% chance of winning, with over $605 million in volume and $267 million wagered, according to Polymarket’s data. In contrast, Democratic candidate and current Vice President Kamala Harris trails with 38% odds, nearly $405 million in volume, and $159 million bet on her victory.

Trump’s rising odds follow a CryptoSlate Insight report, which revealed that large-scale traders, or “whales,” have significantly influenced the market in Trump’s favor over the past day. On Oct. 16, the top two Trump backers on Polymarket executed over 1,600 trades worth over $4 million to support the former president’s campaign.

Additionally, a new Polymarket participant, “Theo4,” has placed over $12 million in high-frequency bets on Trump’s chances within just three days.

$1 billion monthly volume

These developments come as Polymarket experiences record-breaking growth.

In October alone, the platform has reported over $900 million in trading volume and is closing in on the $1 billion mark. This would represent a 100% increase compared to September, which saw approximately $503 million in total volume.

Polymarket’s user base is also expanding, with nearly 100,000 active monthly users reported this month, according to Dune Analytics data.

The platform’s most active market, “Presidential Election Winner 2024,” has driven much of this growth, amassing $785 million in volume so far in October, just weeks ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

The surge in activity on Polymarket reflects broader interest in decentralized prediction markets, which have gained popularity due to significant global events such as elections, financial policy changes, and geopolitical tensions.

Election pushes volumes on Kalshi

Meanwhile, Polymarket is not the only platform seeing increased activity ahead of the US elections.

Data from Kalshi, another prediction market, shows a similar trend. Since launching its presidential election market on Oct. 7, Kalshi has reported about $20 million in total volume.

Like Polymarket, Kalshi’s market gives Trump a favorable 57% chance of winning, while Harris stands at 43%. With the election just weeks away, both platforms see substantial engagement as the race heats up.

Kalshi recently won a legal battle against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which had attempted to block the platform from listing political event contracts. Following a September court ruling in favor of Kalshi, a federal appeals court reaffirmed the decision on Oct. 2, allowing the platform to continue its operations.

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