US markets, Bitcoin poised for rally regardless of elections outcome

Fundstrat's Tom Lee sees year-end rally as election uncertainty fades, while Bernstein predicts Bitcoin's resilience and potential growth to $200,000 by 2025 amid fiscal challenges.

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Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee and analysts from Bernstein predict robust markets heading into 2025, regardless of the results of the upcoming US presidential election.

While Lee expects a broader market rally across sectors, Bernstein highlighted Bitcoin’s (BTC) resilience amid political uncertainty.

Tom Lee, managing partner and head of research at Fundstrat, recently shared his views on CNBC, stating that favorable economic fundamentals and a dovish Federal Reserve position make a strong case for a year-end rally.

According to Lee, sidelined cash could flow back into the market as election-related uncertainty clears up. He said:

“I’m bullish only in the sense that election uncertainty has caused people to derisk and cash to sit on the sidelines, but the fundamentals have been good.”

Lee referenced strong earnings reports and Fed support as strong drivers once the uncertainty around elections subsides. He believes that even with a divided or unified government, markets could perform well through the end of 2024 and beyond.

Bitcoin to withstand political shifts

Lee’s comments come alongside Bernstein’s outlook on Bitcoin, which they say remains poised to withstand political shifts.

In a note released on Nov. 4, Bernstein analysts highlighted Bitcoin’s structural drivers, including US fiscal policy, record debt levels, and increased demand for hard assets, as factors supporting its long-term growth.

According to Bernstein, “Bitcoin remains the most resilient within crypto,” and its limited market share compared to global fiscal assets leaves ample room for growth. The firm has set a price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin by 2025, anticipating the digital asset’s appeal in an environment of fiscal indiscipline and monetary expansion.

Bernstein analysts also noted that Bitcoin’s recent ETF adoption — bringing in over $23 billion in year-to-date inflows — may add to its momentum, regardless of who wins the presidency.

They see a potential initial price response depending on the election outcome, with a Trump victory possibly pushing Bitcoin toward new highs of $80,000 to $90,000, while a Harris win could initially lead to a dip near $50,000. The analysts emphasized that Trump’s perceived pro-crypto stance contrasts with Harris’s reportedly hawkish position.

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