Whale sheds $4M in Trump win-related bets on Polymarket amid elections uncertainty

On-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence highlighted that the selling activity started right after known trader GCR advised caution.

Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.

A prediction market Polymarket user sold nearly $4 million in bets related to former US President Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov. 5 elections in the past 24 hours.

The investor had accumulated over $15.3 million in trading volume across 24 different markets.

On-chain data revealed that the “whale” identified as “larpas” started shedding positions around 4 P.M. UTC. According to Polymarket activity history, most of the bets were related to a Trump win and Vice President Kamala Harris’ loss.

Trump’s odds affected

The whale activity affected Trump’s odds on the platform, causing them to fall to 56.2% from 60.6% as the positions were closed. However, Trump’s odds recovered to 58% as of press time.

Notably, on-chain data platform Arkham Intelligence pointed out that the selling started one minute after known trader GCR suggested users exit election-related polls until Nov. 5. He mentioned the 2000 US presidential elections, which were decided by “a mere 537 votes,” cautioning traders not to push their luck.

Galaxy said its data on 17 different election venues revealed that Trump’s odds of winning fell in 9 of them. Nevertheless, the Republican representative still wins on 14 predictions, comprising proprietary models, prediction markets, and aggregators.

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