When Does 'Uptober' Really Start? Bitcoin Price History Reveals All

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While many crypto market participants had high hopes for the upcoming month of October, its arrival brought unprecedented disappointment, with Bitcoin (BTC) losing 3.98% right from the start and the total market capitalization of altcoins shrinking by $41.67 billion. 

In hindsight, this can be explained by renewed geopolitical tensions and the fact that, as always, when a crowd anticipates something, its expectations are overturned in the most dramatic way. 

However, Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market, may still see green candles in October, as a new revelation from Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson suggests that most of the so-called "Uptober" will not start until after the 19th.

Historical data continues to support the current bullish outlook for Bitcoin in October as well. Since 2018, the cryptocurrency has consistently shown positive performance in this month, with an average gain of over 14% and a median return of around 13%. Undoubtedly, every month that has ended in the green has previously delivered gains from the start.

Thus, maybe there is room for disappointment since October 2024 did not live up to "Uptober" expectations out of the gate, but if the median over its 11-year history of public trading is any creditable indication, give it at least two more weeks before giving up entirely. 

BTC to USD by CoinMarketCap

However, one thing is for sure - with so many new players coming into the market, especially institutions, old patterns will not work so easily, so the basic investor will have to become more sophisticated in order to maintain and profit here.